Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 42.4%

TBL: 57.6%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.36

TBL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	SEA	TBL
Season SV%	0.920	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	25	19	6	76.0%	3.65	3	-2.35
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	18	16	2	88.9%	1.70	0	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SEA at home vs TBL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	6	0	0.38
1	TBL	12	0	0.84
2	SEA	15	0	0.90
2	TBL	7	1	0.53
3	SEA	8	0	0.43
3	TBL	20	2	2.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown