Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 43.7%

OTT: 56.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.84

OTT: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	1.13
1	OTT	24	0	1.42
2	WSH	20	0	1.19
2	OTT	14	0	0.82
3	WSH	10	3	1.98
3	OTT	19	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2