Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 44.9%

OTT: 55.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.05

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	WSH	OTT
Season SV%	0.913	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	34	1	97.1%	3.55	0	2.55
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	21	4	84.0%	4.31	3	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	1.13
1	OTT	24	0	1.42
2	WSH	20	0	1.19
2	OTT	14	0	0.82
3	WSH	10	3	1.98
3	OTT	19	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown