Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 61.4%

DAL: 38.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.41

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	COL	DAL
Season SV%	0.919	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	13	12	1	92.3%	2.29	2	1.29
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	28	1	96.6%	2.82	1	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	1	0.64
1	DAL	7	0	0.31
2	COL	25	0	1.12
2	DAL	14	2	1.53
3	COL	14	0	1.05
3	DAL	6	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1