Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 45.8%

WPG: 54.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.05

WPG: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	BOS	WPG
Season SV%	0.903	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	23	1	95.8%	2.80	0	1.80
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	21	6	77.8%	3.38	3	-2.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	BOS 6 - 1 WPG	BOS	WPG
2025-12-11	WPG 3 - 6 BOS	BOS	WPG
2025-01-30	BOS 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-10	WPG 8 - 1 BOS	WPG	WPG
2024-01-22	BOS 4 - 1 WPG	BOS	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	19	0	1.12
1	WPG	15	0	0.76
2	BOS	13	1	1.33
2	WPG	11	0	0.80
3	BOS	9	2	0.94
3	WPG	19	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown