New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 69.0%

NYI: 31.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.80

NYI: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

J. Reimer

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	OTT	NYI
Season SV%	—	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	J. Reimer	19	17	2	89.5%	1.65	0	-0.35
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	24	3	88.9%	3.47	4	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	NYI
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.53
1	NYI	8	0	0.25
2	OTT	16	1	1.39
2	NYI	16	0	1.21
3	OTT	18	3	1.55
3	NYI	4	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown