Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 0 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 54.8%

FLA: 45.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.51

FLA: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	EDM	FLA
Season SV%	0.883	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	23	19	4	82.6%	2.75	3	-1.25
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	21	21	0	100.0%	2.49	1	2.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • EDM at home vs FLA: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	EDM 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-11-22	FLA 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	FLA
2025-06-17	FLA 5 - 1 EDM	FLA	FLA
2025-06-14	EDM 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-06-12	FLA 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	0	0.50
1	FLA	20	1	1.10
2	EDM	12	0	0.91
2	FLA	10	1	0.97
3	EDM	12	1	1.08
3	FLA	10	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown