Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VAN: 42.7%

TBL: 57.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.45

TBL: 4.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.44
1	TBL	17	1	1.04
2	VAN	9	0	0.53
2	TBL	17	0	0.81
3	VAN	17	0	1.09
3	TBL	13	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.4 - 4.6