Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 39.0%

TBL: 61.0%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.92

TBL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	VAN	TBL
Season SV%	0.885	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	31	25	6	80.6%	2.70	1	-3.30
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	90.5%	2.05	0	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	TBL
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.44
1	TBL	17	1	1.04
2	VAN	9	0	0.53
2	TBL	17	0	0.81
3	VAN	17	0	1.09
3	TBL	13	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown