Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 52.8%

BUF: 47.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.66

BUF: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	SJS	BUF
Season SV%	0.895	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	16	11	5	68.8%	2.31	1	-2.69
BUF	Alex Lyon	23	23	0	100.0%	1.98	0	1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs BUF: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	SJS
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.70
1	BUF	9	0	0.75
2	SJS	16	0	0.93
2	BUF	7	1	0.86
3	SJS	9	0	0.34
3	BUF	10	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown