Philadelphia Flyers at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-03-19 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 66.3%

PHI: 33.7%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.28

PHI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	LAK	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	22	17	5	77.3%	3.94	3	-1.06
PHI	Samuel Ersson	27	24	3	88.9%	2.49	1	-0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • LAK at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	LAK 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	LAK
2026-01-31	PHI 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	PHI
2024-12-29	LAK 5 - 4 PHI	LAK	LAK
2024-12-19	PHI 3 - 7 LAK	LAK	LAK
2023-11-11	LAK 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	11	0	0.64
1	PHI	5	0	0.31
2	LAK	16	1	1.06
2	PHI	15	1	1.00
3	LAK	15	0	0.54
3	PHI	10	0	0.83
4	LAK	2	0	0.12
4	PHI	2	0	0.22
5	LAK	2	0	0.13
5	PHI	2	2	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8