Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 35.6%

CAR: 64.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.08

CAR: 4.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	1	0.68
1	CAR	14	0	0.74
2	TOR	12	0	0.92
2	CAR	22	2	2.25
3	TOR	13	0	0.82
3	CAR	18	0	0.84
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	CAR	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.1 - 4.7