Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 42.3%

CAR: 57.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.34

CAR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 58%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	TOR	CAR
Season SV%	0.914	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	36	32	4	88.9%	3.88	2	-0.12
CAR	Brandon Bussi	26	23	3	88.5%	2.42	1	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	1	0.68
1	CAR	14	0	0.74
2	TOR	12	0	0.92
2	CAR	22	2	2.25
3	TOR	13	0	0.82
3	CAR	18	0	0.84
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	CAR	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.3 - 2.8