New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 46.3%

NJD: 53.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.40

NJD: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	WSH	NJD
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	30	1	96.8%	2.83	1	1.83
NJD	Jake Allen	28	26	2	92.9%	3.81	2	1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.66
1	NJD	9	0	0.15
2	WSH	12	0	0.93
2	NJD	19	1	1.35
3	WSH	19	2	2.21
3	NJD	25	0	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown