New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 48.4%

NJD: 51.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.23

NJD: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.66
1	NJD	9	0	0.15
2	WSH	12	0	0.93
2	NJD	19	1	1.35
3	WSH	19	2	2.21
3	NJD	25	0	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1