Anaheim Ducks at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-20 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 56.5%

ANA: 43.5%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.39

ANA: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	UTA	ANA
Season SV%	0.879	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.92	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	24	20	4	83.3%	4.48	4	0.48
ANA	Lukas Dostal	30	29	1	96.7%	3.29	2	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs ANA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	UTA 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	UTA
2025-12-03	ANA 0 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-17	ANA 3 - 2 UTA	ANA	UTA
2025-03-12	UTA 3 - 2 ANA	UTA	UTA
2024-12-22	UTA 4 - 5 ANA	ANA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	18	1	1.31
1	ANA	8	0	0.45
2	UTA	12	0	0.80
2	ANA	14	1	1.34
3	UTA	16	1	1.18
3	ANA	16	3	2.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown