Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 67.1%

WPG: 32.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.70

WPG: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	PIT	WPG
Season SV%	0.886	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	27	23	4	85.2%	3.57	2	-0.43
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	27	6	81.8%	5.04	4	-0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PIT at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.49
1	WPG	16	1	1.60
2	PIT	13	1	0.72
2	WPG	15	1	1.08
3	PIT	7	0	0.24
3	WPG	12	0	0.62
4	PIT	7	0	0.80
4	WPG	2	0	0.11
5	PIT	3	2	1.80
5	WPG	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7