Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 52.7%

PHI: 47.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.23

PHI: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	0.52
1	PHI	13	1	1.19
2	SJS	10	0	0.81
2	PHI	16	1	1.82
3	SJS	16	0	1.09
3	PHI	14	5	2.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1