Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 54.3%

PHI: 45.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.35

PHI: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	SJS	PHI
Season SV%	0.895	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	28	24	4	85.7%	5.72	7	1.72
PHI	Dan Vladar	25	24	1	96.0%	2.42	0	1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	0.52
1	PHI	13	1	1.19
2	SJS	10	0	0.81
2	PHI	16	1	1.82
3	SJS	16	0	1.09
3	PHI	14	5	2.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown