New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

MTL: 50.2%

NYI: 49.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.76

NYI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	26	2	2.25
1	NYI	8	1	0.62
2	MTL	9	1	1.08
2	NYI	10	0	0.91
3	MTL	19	0	1.21
3	NYI	12	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.8 - 3.2