New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 50.8%

NYI: 49.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.54

NYI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	MTL	NYI
Season SV%	0.904	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	22	19	3	86.4%	2.26	1	-0.74
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	29	7	80.6%	4.55	3	-2.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	NYI
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	26	2	2.25
1	NYI	8	1	0.62
2	MTL	9	1	1.08
2	NYI	10	0	0.91
3	MTL	19	0	1.21
3	NYI	12	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown