Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 80.1%

TOR: 19.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.04

TOR: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	OTT	TOR
Season SV%	0.881	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	14	12	2	85.7%	2.10	2	0.10
TOR	Joseph Woll	43	38	5	88.4%	4.91	3	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	1	1.08
1	TOR	8	0	0.52
2	OTT	24	0	1.65
2	TOR	8	1	0.94
3	OTT	26	2	2.17
3	TOR	4	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown