Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 86.2%

TOR: 13.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.96

TOR: 2.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	1	1.08
1	TOR	8	0	0.52
2	OTT	24	0	1.65
2	TOR	8	1	0.94
3	OTT	26	2	2.17
3	TOR	4	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 86.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 5.0 - 2.1