Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 50.2%

BOS: 49.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.22

BOS: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	DET	BOS
Season SV%	0.893	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	23	4	85.2%	4.77	7	0.77
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	43	41	2	95.3%	4.01	1	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs BOS: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	DET 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	DET
2026-01-13	BOS 3 - 0 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-12-02	DET 5 - 4 BOS	DET	DET
2025-11-29	BOS 3 - 2 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-03-29	DET 2 - 1 BOS	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.95
1	BOS	12	3	1.96
2	DET	15	0	1.19
2	BOS	17	1	1.12
3	DET	27	1	1.88
3	BOS	10	3	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown