Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 52.2%

WPG: 47.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.86

WPG: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	NYR	WPG
Season SV%	0.000	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Dylan Garand	39	35	4	89.7%	5.12	6	1.12
WPG	Eric Comrie	31	29	2	93.5%	2.59	2	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs WPG: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYR 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	NYR
2026-03-12	WPG 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	WPG
2025-03-11	WPG 2 - 1 NYR	WPG	WPG
2024-11-12	NYR 3 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-19	NYR 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	9	0	0.12
1	WPG	13	0	0.78
2	NYR	23	2	1.51
2	WPG	22	3	1.77
3	NYR	10	0	0.46
3	WPG	18	1	0.93
4	NYR	7	0	0.42
4	WPG	1	0	0.06
5	NYR	2	0	0.08
5	WPG	2	2	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9