Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 41.8%

COL: 58.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.64

COL: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	WSH	COL
Season SV%	0.913	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	21	3	87.5%	2.33	1	-0.67
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	22	20	2	90.9%	2.81	1	0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	1.07
1	COL	10	1	0.71
2	WSH	10	1	0.63
2	COL	13	0	0.67
3	WSH	13	0	1.10
3	COL	11	0	0.59
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	COL	4	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4