Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 51.4%

CAR: 48.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.09

CAR: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	PIT	CAR
Season SV%	0.888	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	26	21	5	80.8%	5.92	5	0.92
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	18	1	94.7%	2.73	2	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PIT at home vs CAR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.63
1	CAR	19	0	1.15
2	PIT	9	1	0.58
2	CAR	16	2	1.55
3	PIT	16	1	1.52
3	CAR	18	3	3.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown