Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 52.4%

CAR: 47.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.70

CAR: 3.87

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.63
1	CAR	19	0	1.15
2	PIT	9	1	0.58
2	CAR	16	2	1.55
3	PIT	16	1	1.52
3	CAR	18	3	3.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.7 - 3.9