Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2026-03-22 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 43.7%
VGK: 56.3%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.87
VGK: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | DAL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.896 | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | DAL 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-10 | DAL 2 - 1 VGK | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-01-29 | VGK 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-28 | VGK 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-24 | DAL 4 - 3 VGK | DAL | DAL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 3.0
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.