Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 49.3%

VGK: 50.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.18

VGK: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	DAL	VGK
Season SV%	0.912	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	33	30	3	90.9%	4.72	4	1.72
VGK	Adin Hill	15	13	2	86.7%	1.95	2	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	DAL
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	1	0.81
1	VGK	16	1	1.76
2	DAL	4	1	0.39
2	VGK	13	0	1.10
3	DAL	11	0	0.75
3	VGK	17	3	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown