Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2026-03-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)
🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 41.1%
TBL: 58.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.02
TBL: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 41%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | CGY | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.250 | 0.969 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | CGY 4 - 3 TBL | CGY | TBL |
| 2025-11-26 | TBL 5 - 1 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-27 | TBL 3 - 0 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-12 | CGY 3 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-07 | TBL 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9
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