Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 43.9%

TBL: 56.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.16

TBL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	CGY	TBL
Season SV%	0.914	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	35	32	3	91.4%	2.93	3	-0.07
TBL	Jonas Johansson	29	25	4	86.2%	2.51	0	-1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	TBL
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	0.88
1	TBL	14	0	0.78
2	CGY	15	0	0.88
2	TBL	21	1	1.01
3	CGY	12	0	0.58
3	TBL	13	2	1.14
4	CGY	1	0	0.17
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9