Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-23 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 22.7%

OTT: 77.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.10

OTT: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	NYR	OTT
Season SV%	0.910	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	31	2	93.9%	2.68	0	0.68
OTT	J. Reimer	10	9	1	90.0%	1.35	0	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	6	0.43
1	OTT	15	0.69
2	NYR	7	0.29
2	OTT	18	1.31
3	NYR	12	0.63
3	OTT	9	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown