Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 60.1%

TOR: 39.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.38

TOR: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	BOS	TOR
Season SV%	0.903	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	35	31	4	88.6%	7.13	9	3.13
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	20	18	2	90.0%	2.89	1	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.66
1	TOR	14	2	1.79
2	BOS	18	1	1.46
2	TOR	19	2	1.78
3	BOS	11	0	0.78
3	TOR	20	5	3.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown