Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 60.2%

TOR: 39.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.34

TOR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.66
1	TOR	14	2	1.79
2	BOS	18	1	1.46
2	TOR	19	2	1.78
3	BOS	11	0	0.78
3	TOR	20	5	3.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1