Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 40.7%

CAR: 59.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.86

CAR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	MTL	CAR
Season SV%	0.889	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	43	41	2	95.3%	3.59	2	1.59
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	14	5	73.7%	4.56	7	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.34
1	CAR	21	1	1.12
2	MTL	15	2	1.62
2	CAR	16	0	0.71
3	MTL	8	5	2.60
3	CAR	26	1	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown