Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 52.1%

OTT: 47.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.16

OTT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	DET	OTT
Season SV%	0.893	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	21	18	3	85.7%	2.65	3	-0.35
OTT	Linus Ullmark	35	33	2	94.3%	3.00	2	1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DET at home vs OTT: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	0.74
1	OTT	8	0	0.61
2	DET	15	1	0.95
2	OTT	13	2	1.02
3	DET	19	1	1.32
3	OTT	12	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown