Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 43.9%

COL: 56.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.08

COL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	PIT	COL
Season SV%	0.886	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	24	6	80.0%	2.46	2	-3.54
COL	Scott Wedgewood	32	30	2	93.8%	3.59	2	1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	1	0.99
1	COL	21	1	1.10
2	PIT	13	0	0.84
2	COL	7	0	0.32
3	PIT	17	1	1.76
3	COL	12	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown