Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 0 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 59.6%

WSH: 40.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.22

WSH: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	STL	WSH
Season SV%	0.901	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	21	21	0	100.0%	2.47	2	2.47
WSH	Logan Thompson	27	24	3	88.9%	4.72	5	1.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	WSH
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	STL
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	1	1.20
1	WSH	15	1	0.94
2	STL	13	0	0.86
2	WSH	8	0	0.47
3	STL	21	4	2.65
3	WSH	14	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown