Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 39.0%

VGK: 61.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.81

VGK: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WPG at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	0	0.28
1	VGK	17	0	0.63
2	WPG	13	0	1.01
2	VGK	17	0	1.25
3	WPG	11	2	2.17
3	VGK	15	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5