Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 38.1%

VGK: 61.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.77

VGK: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	WPG	VGK
Season SV%	0.907	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	26	1	96.3%	3.10	1	2.10
VGK	Adin Hill	21	17	4	81.0%	3.46	2	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	WPG
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	0	0.28
1	VGK	17	0	0.63
2	WPG	13	0	1.01
2	VGK	17	0	1.25
3	WPG	11	2	2.17
3	VGK	15	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown