Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 46.6%

LAK: 53.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.99

LAK: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	CGY	LAK
Season SV%	0.901	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	25	3	89.3%	3.24	2	0.24
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	27	23	4	85.2%	4.42	3	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CGY at home vs LAK: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	8	1	0.57
1	LAK	14	0	0.82
2	CGY	8	0	0.39
2	LAK	13	0	0.61
3	CGY	15	0	0.89
3	LAK	9	1	0.52
4	CGY	5	0	0.56
4	LAK	3	0	0.31
5	CGY	4	2	2.02
5	LAK	4	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5