Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 65.3%

BOS: 34.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.41

BOS: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	BUF	BOS
Season SV%	0.903	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	27	4	87.1%	2.33	2	-1.67
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	25	22	3	88.0%	2.88	0	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	0	0.70
1	BOS	15	0	0.65
2	BUF	21	0	1.45
2	BOS	18	1	0.99
3	BUF	8	0	0.73
3	BOS	11	1	0.62
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	BOS	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9