Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 63.0%

PIT: 37.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.66

PIT: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • OTT at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	1.13
1	PIT	17	0	0.74
2	OTT	11	0	0.57
2	PIT	31	1	2.13
3	OTT	14	1	1.08
3	PIT	15	0	0.99
4	OTT	7	0	0.75
4	PIT	4	1	0.49
5	OTT	3	1	0.89
5	PIT	3	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7