Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 71.7%

SEA: 28.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.10

SEA: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.51
1	SEA	10	1	1.00
2	TBL	16	2	1.33
2	SEA	9	0	0.57
3	TBL	15	0	0.73
3	SEA	4	0	0.11
4	TBL	3	0	0.38
4	SEA	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7