Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 72.6%

SEA: 27.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.89

SEA: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	TBL	SEA
Season SV%	0.913	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19	15	4	78.9%	1.76	1	-2.24
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	33	30	3	90.9%	2.96	3	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.51
1	SEA	10	1	1.00
2	TBL	16	2	1.33
2	SEA	9	0	0.57
3	TBL	15	0	0.73
3	SEA	4	0	0.11
4	TBL	3	0	0.38
4	SEA	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.9 - 2.3