Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 51.5%

MIN: 48.5%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.15

MIN: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	FLA	MIN
Season SV%	0.899	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	50	47	3	94.0%	4.27	4	1.27
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	20	18	2	90.0%	1.53	0	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs MIN: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	FLA 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	FLA
2026-03-26	FLA 2 - 3 MIN	MIN	FLA
2026-01-24	MIN 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-18	MIN 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-10-22	FLA 1 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	0	0.55
1	MIN	25	2	1.65
2	FLA	13	0	0.44
2	MIN	17	0	1.52
3	FLA	9	0	0.53
3	MIN	24	2	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown