Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 71.6%

CHI: 28.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.72

CHI: 2.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	PHI	CHI
Season SV%	0.868	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	26	25	1	96.2%	1.75	1	0.75
CHI	Spencer Knight	42	37	5	88.1%	5.71	6	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	22	3	1.84
1	CHI	11	1	0.68
2	PHI	21	1	2.31
2	CHI	13	0	0.54
3	PHI	19	2	1.56
3	CHI	9	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown