Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 64.3%

EDM: 35.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.49

EDM: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	VGK	EDM
Season SV%	0.888	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	29	25	4	86.2%	2.45	0	-1.55
EDM	Connor Ingram	29	26	3	89.7%	2.56	0	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	VGK
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	10	0.69
1	EDM	13	1.10
2	VGK	13	0.90
2	EDM	15	0.84
3	VGK	8	0.46
3	EDM	12	0.36
4	VGK	6	0.51
4	EDM	2	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9