Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.5%

OTT: 52.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.47

OTT: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.64
1	OTT	14	2	1.35
2	TBL	22	0	1.48
2	OTT	10	0	0.87
3	TBL	4	3	1.06
3	OTT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1