Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-03-28 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 46.7%
OTT: 53.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.00
OTT: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 42%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | TBL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.891 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | OTT |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9
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