Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 49.0%

MIN: 51.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.53

MIN: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	BOS	MIN
Season SV%	0.903	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	34	31	3	91.2%	3.35	3	0.35
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	31	25	6	80.6%	4.14	2	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	MIN 4 - 1 BOS	MIN	MIN
2026-03-28	BOS 6 - 3 MIN	BOS	MIN
2025-12-14	MIN 6 - 2 BOS	MIN	BOS
2025-03-02	MIN 1 - 0 BOS	MIN	MIN
2025-02-04	BOS 3 - 0 MIN	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.64
1	MIN	17	0	0.47
2	BOS	22	0	1.14
2	MIN	23	1	1.08
3	BOS	20	2	2.36
3	MIN	21	2	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown