Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 55.7%

DAL: 44.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.32

DAL: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	PIT	DAL
Season SV%	0.888	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	26	20	6	76.9%	3.89	3	-2.11
DAL	Jake Oettinger	12	9	3	75.0%	2.39	1	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	PIT
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	PIT
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.71
1	DAL	14	0	0.98
2	PIT	10	0	0.64
2	DAL	13	0	1.00
3	PIT	12	1	1.03
3	DAL	13	3	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown