Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-03-28 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 53.7%
DAL: 46.3%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.08
DAL: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | PIT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.814 | 0.878 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | PIT 3 - 6 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-12-07 | DAL 3 - 2 PIT | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-04-05 | DAL 3 - 5 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-11-11 | PIT 1 - 7 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2024-03-22 | DAL 4 - 2 PIT | DAL | DAL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8
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