Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.8%

DAL: 46.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.01

DAL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.71
1	DAL	14	0	0.98
2	PIT	10	0	0.64
2	DAL	13	0	1.00
3	PIT	12	1	1.03
3	DAL	13	3	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9