Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Seattle Kraken (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 56.3%

SEA: 43.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

SEA: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	BUF	SEA
Season SV%	0.903	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	34	2	94.4%	3.62	3	1.62
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	38	34	4	89.5%	6.07	6	2.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	BUF 3 - 2 SEA	BUF	BUF
2025-12-14	SEA 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-20	SEA 6 - 4 BUF	SEA	BUF
2025-01-11	BUF 2 - 6 SEA	SEA	BUF
2024-03-18	SEA 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.94
1	SEA	17	1	1.04
2	BUF	24	3	1.96
2	SEA	19	2	2.05
3	BUF	11	0	0.92
3	SEA	12	0	0.38
4	BUF	6	0	0.47
4	SEA	0	0	0.00
5	BUF	2	2	1.79
5	SEA	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8