Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 73.0%

WPG: 27.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.10

WPG: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	COL	WPG
Season SV%	0.924	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	21	17	4	81.0%	2.54	2	-1.46
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	23	21	2	91.3%	1.84	0	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.96
1	WPG	13	0	0.49
2	COL	13	0	0.47
2	WPG	10	0	0.62
3	COL	7	0	0.41
3	WPG	9	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown