Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

DET: 47.0%

PHI: 53.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.52

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.26
1	PHI	10	0	0.94
2	DET	16	0	0.85
2	PHI	13	1	1.61
3	DET	20	1	1.67
3	PHI	13	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0