Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 7 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 61.2%

VAN: 38.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.40

VAN: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	CGY	VAN
Season SV%	0.901	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	31	3	91.2%	2.83	1	-0.17
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	23	16	7	69.6%	2.20	1	-4.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.47
1	VAN	15	1	0.79
2	CGY	12	1	1.01
2	VAN	20	0	0.97
3	CGY	8	0	0.72
3	VAN	14	0	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown