Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 67.7%

WSH: 32.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.39

WSH: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	VGK	WSH
Season SV%	0.888	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	24	19	5	79.2%	2.97	2	-2.03
WSH	Logan Thompson	32	28	4	87.5%	3.76	2	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	0.75
1	WSH	10	0	0.88
2	VGK	16	1	1.66
2	WSH	8	1	0.63
3	VGK	14	1	1.05
3	WSH	11	0	0.42
4	VGK	1	0	0.08
4	WSH	4	0	0.22
5	VGK	3	0	0.22
5	WSH	3	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5