Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 67.3%

WSH: 32.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.34

WSH: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	0.75
1	WSH	10	0	0.88
2	VGK	16	1	1.66
2	WSH	8	1	0.63
3	VGK	14	1	1.01
3	WSH	11	0	0.41
4	VGK	1	0	0.08
4	WSH	4	0	0.22
5	VGK	3	0	0.22
5	WSH	3	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7