Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 75.1%

NSH: 24.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.68

NSH: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	TBL	NSH
Season SV%	0.894	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	31	29	2	93.5%	3.18	4	1.18
NSH	Justus Annunen	28	25	3	89.3%	4.24	5	1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs NSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2023-12-07	NSH 5 - 1 TBL	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	7	0	0.55
1	NSH	14	2	1.07
2	TBL	17	1	1.19
2	NSH	13	1	1.25
3	TBL	27	4	2.50
3	NSH	18	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown