Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-29 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 43.9%

DAL: 56.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.82

DAL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	PHI	DAL
Season SV%	0.868	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	18	17	1	94.4%	2.51	4	1.51
DAL	Casey DeSmith	30	28	2	93.3%	3.06	3	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	DAL
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	PHI
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.56
1	DAL	15	3	1.29
2	PHI	20	3	1.88
2	DAL	12	1	0.95
3	PHI	13	0	0.39
3	DAL	4	0	0.27
4	PHI	4	0	0.23
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2