Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-30 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 8 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 49.8%

PIT: 50.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.27

PIT: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.32
1	PIT	17	1	1.05
2	NYI	11	2	1.25
2	PIT	20	2	2.00
3	NYI	12	0	0.75
3	PIT	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 8 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3