Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-03-30 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 8 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 52.3%
PIT: 47.7%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.19
PIT: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NYI | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.837 | 0.830 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | NYI 3 - 8 PIT | PIT | NYI |
| 2026-02-03 | NYI 5 - 4 PIT | NYI | PIT |
| 2025-10-09 | PIT 4 - 3 NYI | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-18 | PIT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | PIT |
| 2024-12-29 | PIT 3 - 2 NYI | PIT | NYI |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 8 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
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