Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-30 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 8 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 53.5%

PIT: 46.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.42

PIT: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	NYI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	24	8	75.0%	4.69	5	-3.31
PIT	Arturs Silovs	23	20	3	87.0%	2.31	2	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.32
1	PIT	17	1	1.05
2	NYI	11	2	1.25
2	PIT	20	2	2.00
3	NYI	12	0	0.75
3	PIT	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown