Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-30 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 9 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 77.2%

CGY: 22.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.28

CGY: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	COL	CGY
Season SV%	0.919	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	29	27	2	93.1%	3.22	3	1.22
CGY	Dustin Wolf	49	40	9	81.6%	6.04	7	-2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • COL at home vs CGY: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	CGY 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	35	4	3.00
1	CGY	10	0	0.24
2	COL	16	0	1.05
2	CGY	17	1	1.52
3	COL	22	3	1.99
3	CGY	18	2	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown