Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-30 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 63.4%

TOR: 36.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 4.08

TOR: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	ANA	TOR
Season SV%	0.884	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Ville Husso	29	24	5	82.8%	4.30	4	-0.70
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	32	28	4	87.5%	4.14	1	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	22	1	1.62
1	TOR	14	2	1.24
2	ANA	17	0	1.08
2	TOR	15	1	1.21
3	ANA	13	0	0.91
3	TOR	14	0	1.29
4	ANA	6	0	0.54
4	TOR	3	1	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7