New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 71.0%

NYI: 29.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.11

NYI: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	BUF	NYI
Season SV%	0.903	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	25	3	89.3%	2.25	1	-0.75
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	33	29	4	87.9%	4.46	4	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.24
1	NYI	8	0	0.40
2	BUF	13	1	1.33
2	NYI	12	1	0.98
3	BUF	21	3	1.89
3	NYI	17	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown